| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Merrimack | 21-17 | 986.0 | +0.0 | 986.0 | 4.9% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Texas Tech | 14-62 | 986.0 | -1.6 | 984.4 | 2.5% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Buffalo | 28-31 | 984.4 | -8.3 | 976.1 | 7.3% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Florida State | 10-66 | 976.1 | -2.1 | 974.0 | 3.5% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Oklahoma | 0-44 | 974.0 | -1.0 | 973.0 | 1.5% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Massachusetts | 42-6 | 973.0 | +73.1 | 1046.1 | 10.6% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Toledo | 10-45 | 1046.1 | -8.8 | 1037.3 | 13.8% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Bowling Green | 24-21 | 1037.3 | +69.2 | 1106.5 | 14.2% |
| 12 | Nov 5 2025 | L | Ball State | 13-17 | 1106.5 | -25.0 | 1081.5 | 36.4% |
| 13 | Nov 11 2025 | W | Akron | 42-35 | 1081.5 | +65.0 | 1146.5 | 29.7% |
| 14 | Nov 19 2025 | L | Central Michigan | 16-28 | 1146.5 | -25.0 | 1121.5 | 23.3% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | W | Northern Illinois | 35-31 | 1121.5 | +63.2 | 1184.7 | 32.2% |